Uneventful Friday. Thoughts are turning to CPI

Uneventful Friday. Thoughts are turning to CPI

Uneventful Friday. Thoughts are turning to CPI

Fri, Sep 8, 2023, 4:08 pm

Apart from the fact that 10-year Treasury yields are about 25 bps higher than before last Friday’s jobs report, it was an uneventful week for the bond market with only one or two exceptions. The first exception was the exceptionally large volume of corporate bonds that came to market in the first half of the week. The result was continued upward pressure on rates for no apparent reason. Second was Wednesday’s ISM service data which added upward pressure. There was a technical correction/recovery on Thursday and Friday was completely unnecessary. Thoughts are already turning to next week’s CPI which comes a week before the all-important Fed meeting. Volatility would likely be high anyway, but doubly so in this case because the Fed is in a blackout period before its meeting, thus making the market’s imagination run wilder than usual.

    • bulk list
      • -0.2 vs -0.1 F’cast, -0.7 rear

09:33 am

Strong early in the overnight session, weak in Europe, but quickly bounced back. 10Y down 1.8bps at 4.232. MBS up 3 ticks (.09).

12:03 pm

Constant weakness since 10 am. MBS is now unchanged and the 10 year is up 0.2bps at 4.25%.

02:28 pm

Slightly weak in PM hours, but bouncing back now. MBS 10 year is back at 4.25% after rising 1 tick (0.03) and up to 4.264%

04:00 pm

Very flat in PM hours. MBS is down 1 tick (0.03) and 10 year yields are up 0.6bps at 4.256.

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